Euroleague Precedent?

One of the hottest sports headlines this past week has been the decision of Wildcats' recruit Brandon Jennings, this year's top high school prospect, to opt out of his scholarship to the University of Arizona and play a year overseas before he enters the 2009 NBA Draft. To say that this is a bold move is an understatement, he will be the first player since the NBA's implementation of the age rule to skip college altogether. If Jennings' move proves to be a success (meaning he develops well, stays injury-free and is still a top three pick in the 2009 Draft), he will likely be the first of many players to bypass college altogether to instead play overseas upon graduating from high school. Ultimately, however, Jennings' decision is a bad one, and similar to many other young players, it was probably arrived at by way of bad advice from the wrong people (i.e. AAU coaches, high school coaches, "Uncle Rick" or a variety of other people who already have Jennings' money spent). Here's why Jennings made the wrong decision.

As a disclaimer let me say that I'm a believer in Jennings' ability to make significant contributions as an NBA player. I saw some footage of him on the AAU circuit and got the chance to see him in person at the 2008 McDonalds All-American Game in Milwaukee. The kid can flat out play. Although All-American games come pre-packaged with a whole lot of offense and not much defense, watching Jennings blow by defenders was impressive nonetheless. Even more impressive was his precision passing, on the fast break or in traffic. I found myself cheering for him as it looked as though he might break the McDonald's All-American assist record of 13, set by Jacque Vaughn in 1993. Although he only finished with 9 assists (due in part to several missed lay-ups/dunks by teammates), his performance was still very impressive. Check out some miscellaneous highlights here.

Jennings decision to tread into unmarked territory is filled with a plethora of questions, the foremost being, will he adjust to Euroleague basketball? Despite your opinion on which brand of basketball is better, there's no arguing with the fact that Europeans play a different brand of basketball than Americans. Jennings will need to adapt to playing a different type of basketball than he's used to, and then turn around in a year and switch to playing a style of basketball conducive to being a point guard in the NBA. Impossible? No. Cumbersome? Absolutely.

Say Jennings adjusts beautifully, and beats out the other dozen or so guards that will be competing with him for a contract (which they are staking their careers on and Jennings is just using as filler for a year), the question then becomes, who will see him? Jennings will be subject to much less exposure to NBA scouts, coaches, GM's, sportswriters, etc. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla does a great job of keeping fans up to date on international basketball players, but how many NBA teams do you think will have representatives at his games? How many of his games do you think we'll see on ESPN, or ESPN2, or CBS, or any station for that matter? Come March, Jennings will be an afterthought while the sports world is salivating over the standout players and NBA prospects of the 2009 NCAA Tournament. I'd be willing to bet dollars to donuts that Jennings' "draft stock" is going to fall significantly in what is projected to be an already outstanding draft class.

What puzzled me the most is that Jennings opted out of spending a year at Arizona, of all schools. We know that he didn't choose the Wildcats over basically every other major program because of the stellar education he would have received, however he chose his program wisely. Arizona is no Duke, Carolina, or UCLA, but it does rank up there with the heavyweights, as does Hall of Fame coach Lute Olsen. More importantly, Arizona is the place to be if you're looking to be a great point guard. As evidenced by his signing, Jennings, or someone close to him, saw the benefit in him attending "Point Guard U," as Coach Olsen and his staff are known for producing excellent guards. Had Jennings chosen to spend a year at Arizona, he would have joined the likes of guards such as Steve Kerr, Damon Stoudamire, Mike Bibby, Jason Terry, Gilbert Arenas, and most recently Jerryd Bayless, along with other standout NBA players such as Sean Elliot and Richard Jefferson. Missing out on the tried and true methods of Arizona basketball (or college basketball in general) might put him behind the curve, so to speak, in his development as an NBA guard. Aside from the fact that Jennings skipped out on the best preparation a guard could ask for in playing under the tutelage of Lute Olsen, the fact that he skipped college in general means that he also skips the NCAA Tournament. We've all heard about the plight of college basketball players, all the problems associated with the process, etc. Sure he would have been broke for another year, like many college students, but the fact of the matter is that playing college basketball at a good school (i.e. Arizona), in a good conference (i.e. the Pac-10), and having the opportunity to play on the NCAA's biggest state (which Arizona would have had no problem making it to), can significantly alter a player's career. Look back no further than this past tournament and Memphis Tigers standout Derrick Rose for evidence of this. We knew Rose would eventually be an NBA player, but prior to this season tell me one person who suggested that he might be the #1 pick in the draft? In fact, mose were even unsure if he would even come out after his freshman season. A stellar performance in the tournament catapulted Rose to the top spot in the draft, ahead of even the best player (by far) in the draft, Michael Beasley. The history of the NCAA tournament is flooded with other examples.

So why such a definitive decision, and why so early? Surely Jennings took into consideration the fact that his stock will fall, he will have a difficult time adjusting, and that a year at Arizona is most likely the best route to take. Hopefully the decision wasn't about money as the roughly $300,000 he will make for a year overseas pales in comparison to what he'll make as a first round draft pick. In fact, with his stock likely to fall he might actually lose more than $300,000. Hopefully the decision wasn't about getting better experience because the experience he will gain, albeit against professionals, is arguably the wrong type of experience. So what does that leave? Grades. One of the reasons that Jennings wasn't a lock for Arizona despite his signing a letter of intent is because he's awaiting his most recent SAT scores which will determine if he qualifies academically to attend Arizona. Maybe his decision to commit to playing overseas is a foresight into the fact that he might not get the necessary score (in which case I would still suggest attending another institution).

I admire Jennings' confidence, which is part of why he's a great player. He's not afraid of being creative, disliked, or the first to make such a bold move. We don't have to look much further than his retro hairstyle to see that he's not a follower; however, being original doesn't have to mean reinventing the wheel. I'll be watching intently this next season, as will many other high school prospects with bad grades. If Jennings is successful in his venture he might significantly alter the whole landscape of college basketball, as many others will follow in his foot steps. My guess is he'll regret the move. Think about this, how many times has an NBA team drafted a player from overseas with the expectation of that player becoming the centerpiece of the franchise?